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How many copies did Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
$20.6M–$55.5M after Steam's cut $37.5M–$85.4M before the cut
from 78k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ out and predicted the genre from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.6M–13.3M
best case 13.3M (Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition)
The Open World genre

All 5 of your similar games are hits. A big, proven genre for a game like yours.

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

A typical game
≈ 6.6M–13.3M copies
≈ $68.7M–$171.7M after Steam's cut
from ~186k reviews
Best case
≈ 10.1M–16.5M copies
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition · ≈ $167.3M–$449.8M after Steam's cut
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (3 of 5) and Stealth (3 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Ninja, priced around $60.
The era
The games you compared span 2000 to 2019, a genre with a long track record.

Copies and revenue are rough lifetime estimates from the review count.

Similar games

Counter-Strike
2000
Est. copies
≈ 13.6M–22.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$37.3M–$100.2M after Steam's cut $67.7M–$154.1M before the cut
$9.99
261k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionFPS
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.1M–16.5M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$167.3M–$449.8M after Steam's cut $304.1M–$691.9M before the cut
$59.99
352k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$93.1M–$250.3M after Steam's cut $169.3M–$385.1M before the cut
$59.99
186k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.6M–$74.2M after Steam's cut $50.2M–$114.2M before the cut
$19.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Assassin's Creed® Origins
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$72.4M–$194.7M after Steam's cut $131.7M–$299.6M before the cut
$59.99
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAssassin

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.