How much revenue did Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ make?

$21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ sell?

Q: How many copies did Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ sell?

1.9M to 3.2M copies, based on its 79k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.9M–3.2M; $21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut $39.0M–$88.7M before Steam's cut; from 79k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.2M–13.5M

best case 13.5M (Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition)

Games like Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™

A typical game among these

≈ 7.2M–13.5M copies

≈ $83.9M–$174.8M after Steam's cut

from ~189k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition at ≈ 10.3M–16.7M copies, ≈ $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (3 of 5) and Stealth (3 of 5).
The winners: Winners here lead with Souls-like + Ninja, priced around $60.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2000 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Counter-Strike 2000	Est. copies ≈ 16.6M–26.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	262k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ActionFPS
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019	Est. copies ≈ 10.3M–16.7M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut	$59.99	357k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Souls-likeDifficult
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	189k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™ 2014	Est. copies ≈ 5.5M–8.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	97k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Assassin's Creed® Origins 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $73.3M–$197.2M after Steam's cut $133.3M–$303.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	129k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAssassin