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How many copies did Barbie Project Friendship™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$23k–$62k after Steam's cut $42k–$95k before Steam's cut
from 84 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Barbie Project Friendship™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Barbie Project Friendship™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.3M–5.9M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Barbie Project Friendship™

A typical game among these

≈ 3.3M–5.9M copies

≈ $38.1M–$74.1M after Steam's cut

from ~87k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Software (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Software (3 of 8) and Utilities (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Anime + Design & Illustration + Animation & Modeling; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$71.3M–$191.8M after Steam's cut $129.7M–$295.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
133k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
SteamVR
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
87k reviews
Very Positive
VRSoftware
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
Ori and the Blind Forest
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
60k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackAtmospheric
Clicker Heroes
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
62k reviews
Very Positive
ClickerIdler
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Golf With Your Friends
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.9M–$69.5M after Steam's cut $47.0M–$107.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
76k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerCasual
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
158k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration

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