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How many copies did Slime Rancher sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
from 158k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Slime Rancher and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Slime Rancher's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.7M–10.8M
best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)
Games like Slime Rancher

A typical game among these

≈ 3.7M–10.8M copies

≈ $47.1M–$98.1M after Steam's cut

from ~123k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (3 of 4) and Metroidvania (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Ori and the Blind Forest
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
60k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackAtmospheric
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
4.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Grounded
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.2M–$70.4M after Steam's cut $47.6M–$108.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.