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How many copies did MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 92k–150k
$253k–$681k after Steam's cut $461k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 665k–819k
best case 12.8M (Assetto Corsa)
Games like MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame

A typical game among these

≈ 665k–819k copies

≈ $6.0M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Assetto Corsa at ≈ 9.8M–15.9M copies, ≈ $53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Automobile Sim (8 of 8) and Racing (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Automobile Sim, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
DiRT 4
2017
Est. copies
≈ 559k–909k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Motorsport Manager
2016
Est. copies
≈ 592k–962k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementRacing
F1® 2020
2020
Est. copies
≈ 990k–1.6M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
40k reviews
Very Positive
RacingSimulation
Project CARS
2015
Est. copies
≈ 705k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
14k reviews
Mostly Positive
RacingSimulation
Project CARS 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 634k–1.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18k reviews
Very Positive
RacingDriving
F1 2018
2018
Est. copies
≈ 411k–668k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
14k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
GRID Autosport
2014
Est. copies
≈ 489k–794k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9k reviews
Mostly Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim

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