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How many copies did Fool's End sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 769–1k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
from 31 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fool's End and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fool's End's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 163k–230k
best case 412k (SteamWorld Dig 2)
Games like Fool's End

A typical game among these

≈ 163k–230k copies

≈ $1.0M–$2.0M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: SteamWorld Dig 2 at ≈ 314k–510k copies, ≈ $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 566 reviews in their first month; the range was 45 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Mining (5 of 8) and 2D Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

ANTONBLAST
2024
Est. copies
≈ 117k–189k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$641k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2D Platformer2D
DigDigDrill
2024
Est. copies
≈ 16k–25k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$17k–$46k after Steam's cut $31k–$71k before Steam's cut
$3.99
628 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MiningCollectathon
Idle Cave Miner
2023
Est. copies
≈ 31k–50k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1k reviews
Very Positive
IdlerClicker
Hidden Deep
2022
Est. copies
≈ 127k–206k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$869k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
Early AccessShooter
SteamWorld Dig 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 314k–510k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureMetroidvania
To The Core
2023
Est. copies
≈ 129k–210k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$283k–$762k after Steam's cut $515k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$7.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
CasualClicker
Dwarfs!?
2011
Est. copies
≈ 68k–111k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$188k–$505k after Steam's cut $341k–$776k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
DwarfColony Sim
Actraiser Renaissance
2021
Est. copies
≈ 19k–32k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$160k–$430k after Steam's cut $291k–$662k before Steam's cut
$29.99
782 reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionAction RPG

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.