How much revenue did Tumblestone make?

$565k–$1.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Tumblestone sell?

Q: How many copies did Tumblestone sell?

82k to 134k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 82k–134k; $565k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tumblestone and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Tumblestone's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 38.0M–110.2M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like Tumblestone

A typical game among these

≈ 38.0M–110.2M copies

≈ $68.0M–$242.0M after Steam's cut

from ~1.1M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (2 of 4), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (2 of 4) and Survival (2 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
Garry's Mod 2006	Est. copies ≈ 80.0M–130.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.3M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxModdable
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Among Us 2018	Est. copies ≈ 22.8M–37.0M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut $56.8M–$129.3M before Steam's cut	$4.99	749k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerSocial Deduction