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How many copies did Medieval Blacksmith sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 15k–24k
$82k–$220k after Steam's cut $149k–$338k before Steam's cut
from 600 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Medieval Blacksmith and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Medieval Blacksmith's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–2.8M
best case 3.3M (Supermarket Together)
Games like Medieval Blacksmith

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–2.8M copies

≈ $14.9M–$20.3M after Steam's cut

from ~49k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Supermarket Together at ≈ 2.5M–4.0M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 14k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 69k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Life Sim (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Management.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 1M–2M
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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Life SimCharacter Customization
The Sims™ 3
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Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before Steam's cut
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2025
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≈ 2.1M–3.4M
1.7x vs typical
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My Time at Portia
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≈ 2.5M–4.0M
2.1x vs typical
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Free
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Very Positive
SimulationOnline Co-Op
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2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGod Game

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.