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How many copies did Seedsow Lullaby sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 14k–23k
$81k–$217k after Steam's cut $147k–$334k before Steam's cut
from 564 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Seedsow Lullaby and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Seedsow Lullaby's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 212k–2.1M
best case 5.7M (Everlasting Summer)
Games like Seedsow Lullaby

A typical game among these

≈ 212k–2.1M copies

≈ $691k–$11.7M after Steam's cut

from ~24k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Everlasting Summer at ≈ 4.4M–7.1M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 717 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (8 of 8) and Visual Novel (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Story Rich.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles
2021
Est. copies
≈ 237k–385k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelAdventure
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeVisual Novel
私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版
2022
Est. copies
≈ 136k–222k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$375k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $681k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
OtomeFemale Protagonist
Everlasting Summer
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78k reviews
Very Positive
You, With Me - A Kinetic Novel
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$962–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$2.99
34 reviews
Mostly Negative
Visual NovelText-Based
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.4M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.3M before Steam's cut
$15.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
他人世界末 On-looker
2020
Est. copies
≈ 74k–120k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$183k–$491k after Steam's cut $332k–$756k before Steam's cut
$8.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelDating Sim
Winter Polaris
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$12k–$31k after Steam's cut $21k–$48k before Steam's cut
$14.99
97 reviews
Very Positive
CasualGore

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