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How many copies did Toybox Turbos sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 104k–169k
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Toybox Turbos and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Toybox Turbos's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 132k–228k
best case 968k (Need for Speed™)
Games like Toybox Turbos

A typical game among these

≈ 132k–228k copies

≈ $501k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Need for Speed™ at ≈ 737k–1.2M copies, ≈ $6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 768 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Racing (7 of 8) and Top-Down (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Driving, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Adventure + Singleplayer + Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Renegade Ops
2011
Est. copies
≈ 183k–297k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$755k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$15.00
3k reviews
Very Positive
Absolute Drift
2015
Est. copies
≈ 156k–253k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$643k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Razortron 2000
2016
Est. copies
≈ 136k–221k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$186k–$501k after Steam's cut $339k–$771k before Steam's cut
$4.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
CasualRacing
art of rally
2020
Est. copies
≈ 164k–266k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RacingDriving
Little Racers STREET
2014
Est. copies
≈ 63k–102k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$103k–$277k after Steam's cut $188k–$427k before Steam's cut
$5.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
RacingArcade
Need for Speed™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 737k–1.2M
9.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
30k reviews
Mixed
RacingMultiplayer
Zombie Driver HD
2012
Est. copies
≈ 257k–418k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$707k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesRacing
Circuit Superstars
2023
Est. copies
≈ 65k–106k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$357k–$961k after Steam's cut $650k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
RacingController

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