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How many copies did Leap Year sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 80k–129k
$109k–$294k after Steam's cut $199k–$452k before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Leap Year and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Leap Year's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 28k–44k
best case 5.9M (Celeste)
Games like Leap Year

A typical game among these

≈ 28k–44k copies

≈ $236k–$425k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 354 reviews in their first month; the range was 112 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (8 of 8) and Precision Platformer (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + 2D Platformer, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Indie + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Bō: Path of the Teal Lotus
2024
Est. copies
≈ 43k–71k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$239k–$643k after Steam's cut $435k–$989k before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
MetroidvaniaSide Scroller
VVVVVV
2010
Est. copies
≈ 667k–1.1M
9.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$916k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsPrecision Platformer
Lone Fungus
2023
Est. copies
≈ 30k–48k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$162k–$436k after Steam's cut $295k–$671k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
MetroidvaniaPixel Graphics
La-Mulana 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 33k–54k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$228k–$613k after Steam's cut $414k–$943k before Steam's cut
$24.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureMetroidvania
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
137x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
qomp
2021
Est. copies
≈ 13k–22k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$26k–$69k after Steam's cut $47k–$106k before Steam's cut
$6.99
538 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown
2024
Est. copies
≈ 182k–295k
6.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
MetroidvaniaExploration
Draw
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21k–34k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
849 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGAction RPG

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