How much revenue did Rain World make?

$13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Rain World sell?

Q: How many copies did Rain World sell?

2.0M to 3.2M copies, based on its 58k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2.0M–3.2M; $13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.4M before Steam's cut; from 58k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rain World and predicted how it would do from its 6 similar games. Every figure here, including Rain World's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 12.7M–37.9M

best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)

Games like Rain World

A typical game among these

≈ 12.7M–37.9M copies

≈ $70.0M–$159.6M after Steam's cut

from ~412k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 6 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (3 of 6), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (3 of 6) and Survival (3 of 6).
The winners: Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2004 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Dead by Daylight 2016	Est. copies ≈ 39.0M–63.3M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut $389.4M–$886.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	937k reviews Mostly Positive	HorrorMultiplayer
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Outlast 2013	Est. copies ≈ 8.8M–14.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	140k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HorrorFirst-Person
Counter-Strike: Source 2004	Est. copies ≈ 12.2M–19.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $33.6M–$90.3M after Steam's cut $61.0M–$138.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	193k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ShooterFPS
Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019	Est. copies ≈ 8.0M–13.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	279k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldExtraction Shooter
Don't Starve Together 2016	Est. copies ≈ 22.6M–36.8M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	544k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft