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How many copies did DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
$12.0M–$32.2M after Steam's cut $21.8M–$49.5M before Steam's cut
from 22k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.1M–6.2M
best case 9.9M (NARAKA: BLADEPOINT)
Games like DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE

A typical game among these

≈ 4.1M–6.2M copies

≈ $54.7M–$78.1M after Steam's cut

from ~104k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: NARAKA: BLADEPOINT at ≈ 7.5M–12.2M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fighting (3 of 4) and 2D Fighter (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Martial Arts.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.8M–$55.8M after Steam's cut $37.8M–$85.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
91k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeFighting
DRAGON BALL FighterZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$38.6M–$103.7M after Steam's cut $70.1M–$159.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
77k reviews
Very Positive
FightingAnime
Mortal Kombat 11
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut
$49.99
116k reviews
Very Positive
FightingGore
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleMultiplayer

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