How much revenue did Paint the Town Red make?

$4.5M–$12.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Paint the Town Red sell?

Q: How many copies did Paint the Town Red sell?

810k to 1.3M copies, based on its 33k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 810k–1.3M; $4.5M–$12.0M after Steam's cut $8.1M–$18.4M before Steam's cut; from 33k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Paint the Town Red and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Paint the Town Red's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.1M–12.1M

best case 51.1M (Dead by Daylight)

Games like Paint the Town Red

A typical game among these

≈ 7.1M–12.1M copies

≈ $82.1M–$93.6M after Steam's cut

from ~222k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Dead by Daylight at ≈ 39.0M–63.3M copies, ≈ $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Gore (5 of 5) and Violent (3 of 5).
The winners: Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $20.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Dead by Daylight 2016	Est. copies ≈ 39.0M–63.3M 4.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut $389.4M–$886.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	937k reviews Mostly Positive	HorrorMultiplayer
People Playground 2019	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	321k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxGore
DOOM 2016	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	222k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSGore
DOOM Eternal 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.4M–8.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $44.5M–$119.7M after Steam's cut $80.9M–$184.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	218k reviews Very Positive	FPSAction
Mortal Kombat 11 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut	$49.99	116k reviews Very Positive	FightingGore