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wishvane

How many copies did Paint the Town Red sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 806k–1.3M
$4.4M–$11.9M after Steam's cut $8.1M–$18.3M before the cut
from 33k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Paint the Town Red out and predicted the genre from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Paint the Town Red's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.1M–12.1M
best case 51.0M (Dead by Daylight)
Games like Paint the Town Red

The middle of these games

≈ 7.1M–12.1M copies

≈ $82.0M–$93.4M after Steam's cut

from ~222k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Dead by Daylight at ≈ 38.8M–63.1M copies, ≈ $213.5M–$574.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Gore (5 of 5) and Violent (3 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $20.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dead by Daylight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 38.8M–63.1M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$213.5M–$574.0M after Steam's cut $388.2M–$883.1M before the cut
$19.99
934k reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.1M–14.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.7M–$103.9M before the cut
$9.99
317k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.2M after Steam's cut $92.1M–$209.6M before the cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
DOOM Eternal
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$44.5M–$119.5M after Steam's cut $80.8M–$183.9M before the cut
$29.99
217k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Mortal Kombat 11
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.0M–$123.7M after Steam's cut $83.6M–$190.2M before the cut
$49.99
116k reviews
Very Positive
FightingGore

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.