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How many copies did Winter Clothing sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–4k
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$25k before Steam's cut
from 90 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Winter Clothing and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Winter Clothing's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 531k–1.9M
best case 4.6M (MiSide)
Games like Winter Clothing

A typical game among these

≈ 531k–1.9M copies

≈ $2.3M–$10.9M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: MiSide at ≈ 3.5M–5.8M copies, ≈ $14.6M–$39.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 13k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 64k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (6 of 8) and Psychological Horror (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Story Rich, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Firework
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
44k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorIndie
Sanfu
2023
Est. copies
≈ 443k–720k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before Steam's cut
$10.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
MysteryRPG
The Rewinder
2021
Est. copies
≈ 183k–297k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$754k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureMystery
港詭實錄ParanormalHK
2020
Est. copies
≈ 510k–829k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut
$12.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorSexual Content
Detention
2017
Est. copies
≈ 407k–661k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.6M before Steam's cut
$11.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorIndie
SOMA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MiSide
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.8M
7.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.6M–$39.2M after Steam's cut $26.5M–$60.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
143k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
The Cat Lady
2013
Est. copies
≈ 398k–648k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$985k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.1M before Steam's cut
$8.99
6k reviews
Very Positive

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