How much revenue did Firework make?

$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Firework sell?

Q: How many copies did Firework sell?

1.1M to 1.8M copies, based on its 44k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.1M–1.8M; $3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before Steam's cut; from 44k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Firework and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Firework's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.0M–5.4M

best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)

Games like Firework

A typical game among these

≈ 4.0M–5.4M copies

≈ $10.1M–$54.1M after Steam's cut

from ~122k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Dark (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 69k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Dark (4 of 8) and Horror (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
DEVOUR 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $6.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$24.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	88k reviews Very Positive	HorrorOnline Co-Op
Little Nightmares 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	117k reviews Very Positive	HorrorAtmospheric
Soundpad 2017	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut	$4.99	105k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	UtilitiesAudio Production
Buckshot Roulette 2024	Est. copies ≈ 3.1M–5.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut	$2.99	127k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MultiplayerDark
Outer Wilds 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	108k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ExplorationSpace
Stray 2022	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.2M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	179k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	CatsAdventure
Human Fall Flat 2016	Est. copies ≈ 9.5M–15.4M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	227k reviews Very Positive	Co-opFunny
Poppy Playtime 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	143k reviews Very Positive	HorrorFree to Play