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How many copies did Total War: WARHAMMER sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
$35.9M–$96.6M after Steam's cut $65.3M–$148.6M before Steam's cut
from 52k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Total War: WARHAMMER and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Total War: WARHAMMER's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–3.9M
best case 4.9M (Total War: WARHAMMER III)
Games like Total War: WARHAMMER

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–3.9M copies

≈ $14.0M–$83.9M after Steam's cut

from ~51k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Grand Strategy (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Total War: WARHAMMER III at ≈ 3.7M–6.0M copies, ≈ $61.3M–$164.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the range was 17k to 32k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Grand Strategy (4 of 8) and RTS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Grand Strategy, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Against the Storm
2023
Est. copies
≈ 934k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
38k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$29.7M–$79.9M after Steam's cut $54.0M–$123.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
94k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Total War: WARHAMMER III
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$61.3M–$164.8M after Steam's cut $111.4M–$253.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
150k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Minion Masters
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
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65k reviews
Very Positive
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Total War: WARHAMMER II
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$68.9M–$185.3M after Steam's cut $125.3M–$285.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
121k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyFantasy
Brutal Legend
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
ActionComedy
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.8M–$45.1M after Steam's cut $30.5M–$69.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyMythology
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic
2024
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$31.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation

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