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How many copies did Urban War Defense sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
from 89 reviews (Very Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Urban War Defense and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Urban War Defense's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 195–3k
best case 10k (Operation: Polygon Storm)
Games like Urban War Defense

A typical game among these

≈ 195–3k copies

≈ $1k–$10k after Steam's cut

from ~57 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Operation: Polygon Storm at ≈ 7k–12k copies, ≈ $30k–$80k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 144 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action RTS (8 of 8) and Tower Defense (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RTS + Wargame, priced around $15.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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StrategyTower Defense
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