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How many copies did Samorost 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 232k–377k
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Samorost 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Samorost 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–1.6M
best case 2.9M (OMORI)
Games like Samorost 3

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–1.6M copies

≈ $6.0M–$17.3M after Steam's cut

from ~40k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: OMORI at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (7 of 8) and Psychological Horror (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Story Rich, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Pixel Graphics + Great Soundtrack + RPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut
2023
Est. copies
≈ 856k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$17.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelChoices Matter
The Coffin of Andy and Leyley
2023
Est. copies
≈ 982k–1.6M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.4M before Steam's cut
$11.99
40k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PsychologicalDark Comedy
Sally Face - Episode One
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$2.99
30k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Nine Sols
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.0M–$38.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
OMORI
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.0M–$29.5M after Steam's cut $20.0M–$45.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
54k reviews
Very Positive
EmotionalStory Rich
Night in the Woods
2017
Est. copies
≈ 699k–1.1M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichAdventure
Fran Bow
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.