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How many copies did Sally Face - Episode One sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
from 30k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sally Face - Episode One and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sally Face - Episode One's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–13.2M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Sally Face - Episode One

A typical game among these

≈ 4.4M–13.2M copies

≈ $21.6M–$62.2M after Steam's cut

from ~133k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (3 of 8) and Mature (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
7.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
108k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Undertale
2015
Est. copies
≈ 16.8M–27.2M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
343k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity

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