How much revenue did Undertale make?

$46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Undertale sell?

Q: How many copies did Undertale sell?

16.8M to 27.2M copies, based on its 343k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 16.8M–27.2M; $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut; from 343k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Undertale and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Undertale's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 36.3M–48.9M

best case 133.2M (Grand Theft Auto V Legacy)

Games like Undertale

A typical game among these

≈ 36.3M–48.9M copies

≈ $458.3M–$841.0M after Steam's cut

from ~1.0M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto V Legacy at ≈ 101.5M–164.9M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 326k reviews in their first month; the range was 251k to 347k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (5 of 8) and Mature (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Crime. The breakout hits carry Crime + Automobile Sim + Third Person; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy 2015	Est. copies ≈ 101.5M–164.9M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.1M reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered 2015	Est. copies ≈ 43.8M–71.2M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut	$49.99	898k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG
ELDEN RING 2022	Est. copies ≈ 28.7M–46.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut $861.1M–$1959.0M before Steam's cut	$59.99	1.2M reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeOpen World
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 26.6M–43.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut $797.0M–$1813.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	923k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldStory Rich
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Stardew Valley 2016	Est. copies ≈ 43.5M–70.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Farming SimPixel Graphics
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.4M–39.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	983k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024	Est. copies ≈ 28.9M–46.9M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	1.2M reviews Mostly Positive	Online Co-OpPvE