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How many copies did Octahedron: Transfixed Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–10k
$22k–$59k after Steam's cut $40k–$90k before Steam's cut
from 201 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Octahedron: Transfixed Edition and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Octahedron: Transfixed Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5k–272k
best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)
Games like Octahedron: Transfixed Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 5k–272k copies

≈ $10k–$839k after Steam's cut

from ~404 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 5 similar games are hits.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 26 reviews in their first month; the range was 10 to 165.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (4 of 5) and Precision Platformer (4 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with Music + Level Editor, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
1602x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
Froggie
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$0.99
162 reviews
Very Positive
RetroCute
Electronic Super Joy
2013
Est. copies
≈ 207k–336k
8.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$455k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $827k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$7.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerIndie
SATANIC PANIC 666
2021
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
$4.99
158 reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionPlatformer
BIT.TRIP RERUNNER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 10k–16k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$55k–$148k after Steam's cut $100k–$228k before Steam's cut
$19.99
404 reviews
Very Positive

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