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How many copies did Splasher sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 41k–67k
$171k–$459k after Steam's cut $311k–$707k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Splasher and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Splasher's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 123k–1.7M
best case 5.9M (Celeste)
Games like Splasher

A typical game among these

≈ 123k–1.7M copies

≈ $656k–$12.2M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 4 similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (4 of 4) and Precision Platformer (3 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
44x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
The End Is Nigh
2017
Est. copies
≈ 121k–197k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$500k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $909k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Slime-san: Superslime Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 12k–19k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$58k–$156k after Steam's cut $105k–$239k before Steam's cut
$17.99
340 reviews
Very Positive
Electronic Super Joy
2013
Est. copies
≈ 207k–336k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$455k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $827k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$7.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerIndie

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