How much revenue did Outbreak make?

$12k–$33k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Outbreak sell?

Q: How many copies did Outbreak sell?

4k to 7k copies, based on its 130 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4k–7k; $12k–$33k after Steam's cut $22k–$51k before Steam's cut; from 130 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Outbreak and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Outbreak's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.7M–8.2M

best case 9.1M (Resident Evil 4)

Games like Outbreak

A typical game among these

≈ 5.7M–8.2M copies

≈ $59.9M–$102.4M after Steam's cut

from ~127k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Resident Evil 4 at ≈ 7.0M–11.3M copies, ≈ $76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

The games that made it here had under 68k reviews in their first month.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Horror (6 of 8) and Survival Horror (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $40.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Resident Evil 4 2023	Est. copies ≈ 7.0M–11.3M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut $139.0M–$316.2M before Steam's cut	$39.99	280k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HorrorAction
CYSMA 2020	Est. copies ≈ 50–81 too small to compare SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $96–$257 after Steam's cut $175–$396 before Steam's cut	$6.99	2 reviews 2 user reviews	Walking SimulatorThird-Person Shooter
Death Below 2022	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $6k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$23k before Steam's cut	$9.99	82 reviews Mixed	ActionZombies
Resident Evil 3 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.1M–5.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $62.9M–$143.2M before Steam's cut	$39.99	127k reviews Very Positive	ActionZombies
Resident Evil 4 (2005) 2014	Est. copies ≈ 5.5M–9.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's cut $55.2M–$125.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	99k reviews Very Positive	Inventory ManagementSurvival Horror
Heaven Dust 2 2022	Est. copies ≈ 21k–35k too small to compare SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $88k–$237k after Steam's cut $160k–$364k before Steam's cut	$14.99	861 reviews Very Positive	ZombiesHorror
Matt's Project Survival 2020	Est. copies ≈ 521–846 too small to compare SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut	$9.99	21 reviews Mixed	Early AccessStrategy
Shadows of Duat 2023	Est. copies ≈ 843–1k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut	$14.99	34 reviews Positive	ZombiesGore