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How many copies did Under Leaves sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 29k–47k
$39k–$106k after Steam's cut $72k–$163k before Steam's cut
from 835 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Under Leaves and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Under Leaves's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 13k–43k
best case 151k (I commissioned some bees 0)
Games like Under Leaves

A typical game among these

≈ 13k–43k copies

≈ $5k–$21k after Steam's cut

from ~449 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: I commissioned some bees 0 at ≈ 115k–187k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 26 reviews in their first month; the range was 18 to 1k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Hand-drawn (7 of 8) and Hidden Object (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Hidden Object + Nature.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

I commissioned some bees 0
2023
Est. copies
≈ 115k–187k
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Hidden ObjectNature
100 hidden rams
2021
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before Steam's cut
$0.99
378 reviews
Very Positive
CasualAdventure
100 hidden cats 2
2021
Est. copies
≈ 25k–40k
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$28k before Steam's cut
$0.99
991 reviews
Very Positive
CatsHidden Object
100 hidden cats
2021
Est. copies
≈ 58k–95k
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$16k–$43k after Steam's cut $29k–$66k before Steam's cut
$0.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
CatsHidden Object
100 hidden birds 2
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
$0.99
502 reviews
Very Positive
CasualAdventure
The Wanderer: Frankenstein’s Creature
2019
Est. copies
≈ 11k–18k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$47k–$128k after Steam's cut $86k–$196k before Steam's cut
$15.99
375 reviews
Very Positive
Text-BasedPoint & Click
100 hidden hares
2022
Est. copies
≈ 10k–16k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before Steam's cut
$0.99
395 reviews
Very Positive
CasualAdventure
Cute Capybaras
2023
Est. copies
≈ 5k–9k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$0.99
214 reviews
Very Positive
CasualPuzzle

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.