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How many copies did Dead Drop sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–9k
$8k–$20k after Steam's cut $14k–$31k before Steam's cut
from 161 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dead Drop and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dead Drop's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 65k–159k
best case 222k (Puyo Puyo™Tetris®)
Games like Dead Drop

A typical game among these

≈ 65k–159k copies

≈ $565k–$1.2M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Puyo Puyo™Tetris® at ≈ 170k–275k copies, ≈ $932k–$2.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 305.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and 2D Fighter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Competitive, priced around $20.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
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Science2D Fighter
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2021
Est. copies
≈ 72k–117k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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CasualPuzzle
Puyo Puyo™Tetris®
2018
Est. copies
≈ 170k–275k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$932k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleCasual
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too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
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$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$17k before Steam's cut
$12.99
39 reviews
Positive
2D FighterRhythm
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2D FighterPvP
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Est. copies
≈ 26k–42k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
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$215k–$579k after Steam's cut $391k–$890k before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
Action2D Fighter
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Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
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$11k–$29k after Steam's cut $19k–$44k before Steam's cut
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Dungeon CrawlerHidden Object
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Mixed
Choose Your Own AdventureExploration

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