How many copies did Fallout Shelter sell?

2.9M to 4.6M copies, based on its 83k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Fallout Shelter make?

Fallout Shelter is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Fallout Shelter?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 2.9M–4.6M; from 83k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fallout Shelter and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fallout Shelter's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.0M–13.1M

best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)

Games like Fallout Shelter

A typical game among these

≈ 5.0M–13.1M copies

≈ $57.9M–$144.6M after Steam's cut

from ~246k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 89k reviews in their first month; the range was 40k to 182k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Survival (7 of 8) and Base-Building (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2026, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017	Est. copies ≈ 26.8M–43.5M 3.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	779k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Squad 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.0M–9.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $66.5M–$178.7M after Steam's cut $120.8M–$274.9M before Steam's cut	$39.99	244k reviews Very Positive	MilitaryRealistic
RimWorld 2018	Est. copies ≈ 7.6M–12.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut	$34.99	249k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Colony SimBase-Building
Scrap Mechanic 2026	Est. copies ≈ 3.1M–5.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.3M–$65.4M after Steam's cut $44.2M–$100.6M before Steam's cut	$28.99	123k reviews Very Positive	BuildingSandbox
Grounded 2022	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $26.2M–$70.4M after Steam's cut $47.6M–$108.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	96k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalMultiplayer
Raft 2022	Est. copies ≈ 9.4M–15.3M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	379k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalMultiplayer
ASTRONEER 2019	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	139k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerOpen World
Subnautica 2018	Est. copies ≈ 11.6M–18.8M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	381k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival