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How many copies did Hitman: Blood Money sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
$2.8M–$7.5M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before Steam's cut
from 16k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hitman: Blood Money and predicted how it would do from its 6 similar games. Every figure here, including Hitman: Blood Money's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–6.5M
best case 13.5M (Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition)
Games like Hitman: Blood Money

A typical game among these

≈ 2.9M–6.5M copies

≈ $47.4M–$64.3M after Steam's cut

from ~82k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 6 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition at ≈ 10.3M–16.7M copies, ≈ $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (5 of 6) and Stealth (5 of 6).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third Person, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Souls-like + Difficult; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut $39.0M–$88.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
79k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesOpen World
Assassin's Creed® Unity
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$39.7M–$106.8M after Steam's cut $72.2M–$164.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
86k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldParkour
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
HITMAN™ 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
75k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAssassin
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.3M–16.7M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
357k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.