How much revenue did Guppy make?

$1k–$3k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Guppy sell?

Q: How many copies did Guppy sell?

2k copies, based on its 44 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2k; $1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut; from 44 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Guppy and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Guppy's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 44k–159k

best case 878k (Maneater)

Games like Guppy

A typical game among these

≈ 44k–159k copies

≈ $328k–$636k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Maneater at ≈ 669k–1.1M copies, ≈ $7.4M–$19.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 371 reviews in their first month; the range was 18 to 2k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Simulation (5 of 8) and Underwater (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Dark Humor, priced around $40.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Among Ripples 2015	Est. copies ≈ 71k–115k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	1k reviews Mixed	Free to PlaySimulation
Maneater 2021	Est. copies ≈ 669k–1.1M 18x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.4M–$19.8M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.4M before Steam's cut	$39.99	27k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldDark Humor
The Fisherman - Fishing Planet 2019	Est. copies ≈ 42k–68k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $345k–$928k after Steam's cut $627k–$1.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	1k reviews Mixed	FishingSports
Aquatico 2023	Est. copies ≈ 22k–35k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $148k–$399k after Steam's cut $270k–$614k before Steam's cut	$24.99	871 reviews Mixed	City BuilderStrategy
Chillquarium 2023	Est. copies ≈ 209k–339k 5.7x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $344k–$925k after Steam's cut $626k–$1.4M before Steam's cut	$5.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Creature CollectorIdler
My Koi 2020	Est. copies ≈ 17k–28k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $24k–$63k after Steam's cut $43k–$98k before Steam's cut	$4.99	693 reviews Very Positive	RelaxingSimulation
Northern Journey 2021	Est. copies ≈ 92k–150k 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $304k–$818k after Steam's cut $553k–$1.3M before Steam's cut	$11.99	4k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AtmosphericFPS
Beyond Blue 2020	Est. copies ≈ 38k–61k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $207k–$558k after Steam's cut $377k–$858k before Steam's cut	$19.99	2k reviews Very Positive	UnderwaterAdventure