How much revenue did A Plague Tale: Innocence make?

$23.1M–$62.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did A Plague Tale: Innocence sell?

Q: How many copies did A Plague Tale: Innocence sell?

2.1M to 3.4M copies, based on its 73k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2.1M–3.4M; $23.1M–$62.1M after Steam's cut $42.0M–$95.6M before Steam's cut; from 73k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid A Plague Tale: Innocence and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A Plague Tale: Innocence's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8.3M–23.8M

best case 28.0M (Baldur's Gate 3)

Games like A Plague Tale: Innocence

A typical game among these

≈ 8.3M–23.8M copies

≈ $174.5M–$314.2M after Steam's cut

from ~314k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.3M–34.6M copies, ≈ $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (5 of 8) and Third Person (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $60.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Baldur's Gate 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 21.3M–34.6M 2.7x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	859k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGCharacter Customization
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	189k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	379k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019	Est. copies ≈ 10.3M–16.7M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut	$59.99	357k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Souls-likeDifficult
Tomb Raider Game of the Year 2013	Est. copies ≈ 17.1M–27.8M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut $171.0M–$388.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	271k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AdventureAction
Dying Light 2015	Est. copies ≈ 24.2M–39.3M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut $302.5M–$688.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	496k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesSurvival Horror
Far Cry® 5 2018	Est. copies ≈ 5.8M–9.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $95.1M–$255.6M after Steam's cut $172.9M–$393.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	190k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction-Adventure
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ 2016	Est. copies ≈ 6.5M–10.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $53.7M–$144.2M after Steam's cut $97.5M–$221.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	156k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAction