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wishvane

How many copies did The Messenger sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 398k–647k
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.1M before the cut
from 13k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Messenger out and predicted the genre from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including The Messenger's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.8M–4.3M
best case 5.8M (Celeste)
The 2D Platformer genre

All 3 of your similar games are hits. A big, proven genre for a game like yours.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

A typical game
≈ 2.8M–4.3M copies
≈ $15.9M–$30.5M after Steam's cut
from ~76k reviews
Best case
≈ 4.4M–7.1M copies
Celeste · ≈ $24.1M–$64.8M after Steam's cut
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on 2D Platformer (3 of 3) and Platformer (3 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2019, a genre with a long track record.

Copies and revenue are rough lifetime estimates from the review count.

Similar games

Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.1M–$64.8M after Steam's cut $43.8M–$99.6M before the cut
$19.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Super Meat Boy
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.4M after Steam's cut $15.1M–$34.4M before the cut
$14.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Katana ZERO
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.1M after Steam's cut $16.3M–$37.1M before the cut
$14.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsAction

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.