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How many copies did Penko Park sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 17k–27k
$64k–$173k after Steam's cut $117k–$266k before Steam's cut
from 674 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Penko Park and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Penko Park's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–2k
best case 1.6M (My Singing Monsters)
Games like Penko Park

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–2k copies

≈ $4k–$6k after Steam's cut

from ~50 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Creature Collector (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: My Singing Monsters at ≈ 1.2M–2.0M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 31 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 2k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Creature Collector (4 of 8) and Collectathon (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Lovecraftian + Horror, priced around $7. The breakout hits carry Casual + Indie + Lovecraftian; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
6 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.