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How many copies did Spider Fox sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
from 62 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Spider Fox and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Spider Fox's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 56k–135k
best case 586k (Supraland)
Games like Spider Fox

A typical game among these

≈ 56k–135k copies

≈ $208k–$1.0M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Supraland at ≈ 446k–725k copies, ≈ $2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 508 reviews in their first month; the range was 176 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (5 of 8) and Action-Adventure (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle-Platformer + Exploration, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Physics + Puzzle-Platformer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tinykin
2022
Est. copies
≈ 108k–175k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$742k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
3D PlatformerCute
Supraland
2019
Est. copies
≈ 446k–725k
6.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerExploration
Squirrel with a Gun
2024
Est. copies
≈ 98k–160k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$541k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $983k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
ActionSimulation
Little Noah: Scion of Paradise
2022
Est. copies
≈ 56k–91k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$231k–$621k after Steam's cut $420k–$955k before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeExploration
Supraland Six Inches Under
2022
Est. copies
≈ 107k–173k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$587k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerMetroidvania
Corn Kidz 64
2023
Est. copies
≈ 45k–73k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$87k–$234k after Steam's cut $158k–$359k before Steam's cut
$6.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerRetro
Orbo's Odyssey
2023
Est. copies
≈ 41k–66k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$56k–$150k after Steam's cut $102k–$231k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
3D PlatformerComedy
Cavern of Dreams
2023
Est. copies
≈ 39k–63k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$139k–$374k after Steam's cut $253k–$575k before Steam's cut
$12.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Old School3D Platformer

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