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How many copies did The Adventure of Magical Girl sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
from 132 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Adventure of Magical Girl and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Adventure of Magical Girl's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 769k–1.1M
best case 2.9M (OMORI)
Games like The Adventure of Magical Girl

A typical game among these

≈ 769k–1.1M copies

≈ $4.1M–$9.7M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: OMORI at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (6 of 8) and RPGMaker (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Story Rich, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

OMORI
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tales of the Black Forest
2019
Est. copies
≈ 447k–726k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$491k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $892k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$3.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGRPGMaker
Eternal Senia
2015
Est. copies
≈ 589k–957k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeFree to Play
ASTLIBRA Revision
2022
Est. copies
≈ 792k–1.3M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.6M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RPG2D
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky
2014
Est. copies
≈ 583k–947k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.6M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
LISA: The Painful
2014
Est. copies
≈ 851k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dark HumorRPG
Finding Paradise
2017
Est. copies
≈ 702k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$8.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
20k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichEmotional
Happy Bones
2021
Est. copies
≈ 521–846
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$571–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut
$3.99
21 reviews
Positive
RPGSurvival

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