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How many copies did Don't Look Down sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 691–1k
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $5k–$12k before Steam's cut
from 24 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Don't Look Down and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Don't Look Down's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 132k–691k
best case 841k (The Crew Motorfest)
Games like Don't Look Down

A typical game among these

≈ 132k–691k copies

≈ $22.8M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Crew Motorfest at ≈ 641k–1.0M copies, ≈ $12.3M–$33.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 28 reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 1k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Arcade (8 of 8) and Racing (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Open World, priced around $70.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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4.2x vs typical
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IndieRacing

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