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How many copies did Sphaera sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$6k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$23k before Steam's cut
from 66 reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sphaera and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sphaera's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 83k–216k
best case 380k (The Exit 8)
Games like Sphaera

A typical game among these

≈ 83k–216k copies

≈ $130k–$561k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Exit 8 at ≈ 289k–470k copies, ≈ $317k–$853k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 694 reviews in their first month; the range was 212 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (6 of 8) and Horror (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Walking Simulator, priced around $4.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Light Remake
2020
Est. copies
≈ 38k–62k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$53k–$141k after Steam's cut $96k–$218k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Walking SimulatorFirst-Person
Platform 8
2024
Est. copies
≈ 72k–116k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$79k–$211k after Steam's cut $143k–$325k before Steam's cut
$3.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Awkward Dimensions Redux
2016
Est. copies
≈ 123k–200k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayAdventure
Jazzpunk: Director's Cut
2014
Est. copies
≈ 465k–756k
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$7.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyIndie
The Exit 8
2023
Est. copies
≈ 289k–470k
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$317k–$853k after Steam's cut $577k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$3.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
[Chilla's Art] The Convenience Store | 夜勤事件
2020
Est. copies
≈ 82k–134k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$68k–$182k after Steam's cut $123k–$280k before Steam's cut
$2.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorIndie
Dark Fracture: Prologue
2020
Est. copies
≈ 34k–56k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
DON'T SCREAM
2024
Est. copies
≈ 121k–196k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$266k–$714k after Steam's cut $483k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$7.99
5k reviews
Mixed
HorrorJump Scare

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.