How many copies did one night, hot springs sell?

97k to 157k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did one night, hot springs make?

one night, hot springs is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is one night, hot springs?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 97k–157k; from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid one night, hot springs and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including one night, hot springs's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 412k–588k

best case 2.4M (UNO)

Games like one night, hot springs

A typical game among these

≈ 412k–588k copies

≈ $1.3M–$3.3M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: UNO at ≈ 1.9M–3.0M copies, ≈ $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 721 reviews in their first month; the range was 621 to 800.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (6 of 8) and Choices Matter (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Choices Matter + Story Rich, priced around $12.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Life is Strange 2 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.0M 2.6x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	41k reviews Very Positive	Choices MatterStory Rich
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	39k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	CyberpunkVisual Novel
Night in the Woods 2017	Est. copies ≈ 699k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	20k reviews Very Positive	Story RichAdventure
BAD END THEATER 2021	Est. copies ≈ 250k–406k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $687k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	10k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Multiple EndingsVisual Novel
UNO 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M 3.5x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	54k reviews Mostly Positive	Card GameMultiplayer
Florence 2020	Est. copies ≈ 409k–665k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $674k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut	$5.99	16k reviews Very Positive	IndieCasual
Coffee Talk 2020	Est. copies ≈ 314k–510k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut	$12.99	13k reviews Very Positive	ConversationPixel Graphics
missed messages. 2019	Est. copies ≈ 448k–728k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Free to PlayVisual Novel