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How many copies did Darksburg sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 63k–102k
$258k–$693k after Steam's cut $469k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Darksburg and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Darksburg's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.2M–4.1M
best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)
Games like Darksburg

A typical game among these

≈ 3.2M–4.1M copies

≈ $16.8M–$27.3M after Steam's cut

from ~97k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 63k reviews in their first month; the range was 42k to 103k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (5 of 8) and Action Roguelike (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Minion Masters
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
65k reviews
Very Positive
PvETrading Card Game
Brotato
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
119k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Enter the Gungeon
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.4M–$41.5M after Steam's cut $28.1M–$63.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
90k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Bullet HellAction Roguelike
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22.6M–36.8M
5.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
544k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
5.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
Gunfire Reborn
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.2M–$38.1M after Steam's cut $25.7M–$58.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
104k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.