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How many copies did SIMULACRA 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 42k–68k
$92k–$248k after Steam's cut $167k–$381k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid SIMULACRA 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SIMULACRA 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 207k–474k
best case 655k (The Test)
Games like SIMULACRA 2

A typical game among these

≈ 207k–474k copies

≈ $278k–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Test at ≈ 499k–810k copies, ≈ $273k–$734k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 732 reviews in their first month; the range was 75 to 5k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Choices Matter (5 of 8) and Choose Your Own Adventure (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choose Your Own Adventure + Simulation, priced around $2.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Test
2020
Est. copies
≈ 499k–810k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$273k–$734k after Steam's cut $496k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$1.99
20k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choose Your Own AdventureSimulation
Cyber Manhunt
2021
Est. copies
≈ 390k–634k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
SIMULACRA
2017
Est. copies
≈ 161k–262k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$221k–$595k after Steam's cut $402k–$915k before Steam's cut
$4.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorDetective
Pathologic 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 352k–572k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.0M before Steam's cut
$34.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
The Test: Final Revelation
2020
Est. copies
≈ 133k–216k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$73k–$196k after Steam's cut $132k–$301k before Steam's cut
$1.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationChoose Your Own Adventure
Escape Room - Der kranke Kollege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 312k–507k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
13k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerFree to Play
Breakout 13
2023
Est. copies
≈ 186k–302k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$511k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $928k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
FMVInteractive Fiction
The Test: Hypothesis Rising
2020
Est. copies
≈ 147k–239k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$80k–$216k after Steam's cut $146k–$332k before Steam's cut
$1.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationMultiple Endings

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.