How much revenue did My Beautiful Paper Smile make?

$44k–$118k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did My Beautiful Paper Smile sell?

Q: How many copies did My Beautiful Paper Smile sell?

11k to 17k copies, based on its 429 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 11k–17k; $44k–$118k after Steam's cut $80k–$181k before Steam's cut; from 429 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid My Beautiful Paper Smile and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including My Beautiful Paper Smile's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 717k–1.5M

best case 1.4M (Firework)

Games like My Beautiful Paper Smile

A typical game among these

≈ 717k–1.5M copies

≈ $848k–$7.3M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Firework at ≈ 1.1M–1.8M copies, ≈ $3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 712 to 13k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Horror (8 of 8) and Psychological Horror (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Horror + Puzzle, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Bad Dream: Coma 2017	Est. copies ≈ 76k–124k too small to compare SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $189k–$508k after Steam's cut $344k–$782k before Steam's cut	$8.99	2k reviews Very Positive	Point & ClickAdventure
Firework 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	44k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HorrorIndie
Bad Dream: Fever 2018	Est. copies ≈ 41k–66k too small to compare SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue Free	Free	1k reviews Very Positive	IndieAdventure
Cube Escape Collection 2020	Est. copies ≈ 199k–324k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $273k–$735k after Steam's cut $497k–$1.1M before Steam's cut	$4.99	8k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzlePoint & Click
Sally Face - Episode One 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut	$2.99	30k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story Rich Psychological Horror
Fran Bow 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.6M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	23k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Story Rich
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023	Est. copies ≈ 856k–1.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut	$17.99	35k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelChoices Matter
Rusty Lake Hotel 2016	Est. copies ≈ 443k–719k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $242k–$651k after Steam's cut $441k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$1.99	11k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzlePoint & Click