How much revenue did Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition make?

$1.5M–$4.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition sell?

Q: How many copies did Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition sell?

141k to 229k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 141k–229k; $1.5M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut; from 6k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–3.0M

best case 8.0M (ULTRAKILL)

Games like Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–3.0M copies

≈ $4.8M–$48.8M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: ULTRAKILL at ≈ 6.1M–9.9M copies, ≈ $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (4 of 4) and Shooter (3 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Boomer Shooter + Fast-Paced, priced around $30.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2004 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Quake Live 2014	Est. copies ≈ 890k–1.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Very Positive	FPSArena Shooter
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch 2004	Est. copies ≈ 972k–1.6M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	15k reviews Very Positive	ActionFPS
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun 2023	Est. copies ≈ 454k–738k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut	$21.99	18k reviews Very Positive	Boomer ShooterFPS
ULTRAKILL 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.1M–9.9M 14x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut $91.2M–$207.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	245k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Boomer ShooterFast-Paced