How much revenue did ULTRAKILL make?

$50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did ULTRAKILL sell?

Q: How many copies did ULTRAKILL sell?

6.1M to 9.9M copies, based on its 245k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 6.1M–9.9M; $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut $91.2M–$207.4M before Steam's cut; from 245k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid ULTRAKILL and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including ULTRAKILL's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 619k–1.2M

best case 1.5M (DOOM: The Dark Ages)

Games like ULTRAKILL

A typical game among these

≈ 619k–1.2M copies

≈ $4.2M–$8.3M after Steam's cut

from ~18k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: DOOM: The Dark Ages at ≈ 1.1M–1.9M copies, ≈ $15.8M–$42.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 22k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (8 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Demons, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Dark Fantasy + Cinematic + Demons; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2007 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Quake II 2007	Est. copies ≈ 659k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	10k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic
DUSK 2018	Est. copies ≈ 778k–1.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.3M–$11.5M after Steam's cut $7.8M–$17.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	26k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Boomer ShooterFPS
Trepang2 2023	Est. copies ≈ 489k–795k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.7M–$12.7M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.5M before Steam's cut	$34.99	20k reviews Very Positive	ShooterSingleplayer
DOOM: The Dark Ages 2025	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.9M 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $15.8M–$42.4M after Steam's cut $28.7M–$65.2M before Steam's cut	$49.99	46k reviews Very Positive	ActionFPS
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE 2020	Est. copies ≈ 283k–461k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	11k reviews Very Positive	FPS Rhythm
DOOM + DOOM II 2007	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–3.0M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.6M after Steam's cut $9.2M–$20.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	29k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun 2023	Est. copies ≈ 454k–738k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut	$21.99	18k reviews Very Positive	Boomer ShooterFPS
Quake 2007	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic