How much revenue did Alan Wake make?

$15.7M–$42.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Alan Wake sell?

Q: How many copies did Alan Wake sell?

3.8M to 6.2M copies, based on its 60k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 3.8M–6.2M; $15.7M–$42.1M after Steam's cut $28.5M–$64.7M before Steam's cut; from 60k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alan Wake and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alan Wake's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8.8M–25.7M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like Alan Wake

A typical game among these

≈ 8.8M–25.7M copies

≈ $105.1M–$302.8M after Steam's cut

from ~280k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Horror (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Horror (4 of 8) and Survival (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Shooter + Battle Royale + FPS; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Stray 2022	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.2M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	179k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	CatsAdventure
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 9.9x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
Dead by Daylight 2016	Est. copies ≈ 39.0M–63.3M 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut $389.4M–$886.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	937k reviews Mostly Positive	HorrorMultiplayer
Resident Evil 4 2023	Est. copies ≈ 7.0M–11.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut $139.0M–$316.2M before Steam's cut	$39.99	280k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HorrorAction
DARK SOULS™ III 2016	Est. copies ≈ 18.3M–29.8M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $302.7M–$813.9M after Steam's cut $550.4M–$1252.2M before Steam's cut	$59.99	441k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Batman™: Arkham Knight 2015	Est. copies ≈ 7.8M–12.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $43.0M–$115.6M after Steam's cut $78.2M–$177.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	160k reviews Very Positive	ActionOpen World
Resident Evil 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 6.5M–10.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $70.9M–$190.7M after Steam's cut $129.0M–$293.4M before Steam's cut	$39.99	224k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesSurvival Horror