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How many copies did The Henry Stickmin Collection sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
$6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut
from 60k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Henry Stickmin Collection and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Henry Stickmin Collection's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 387k–541k
best case 1.1M (Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut)
Games like The Henry Stickmin Collection

A typical game among these

≈ 387k–541k copies

≈ $609k–$4.1M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut at ≈ 856k–1.4M copies, ≈ $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 448 to 11k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (6 of 8) and Choices Matter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Choices Matter, priced around $18.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut
2023
Est. copies
≈ 856k–1.4M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$17.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelChoices Matter
Lucy -The Eternity She Wished For-
2016
Est. copies
≈ 343k–558k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$944k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
Monster Prom 2: Monster Camp
2020
Est. copies
≈ 152k–248k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$502k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $913k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$11.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dating SimLGBTQ+
The Test: Hypothesis Rising
2020
Est. copies
≈ 147k–239k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$80k–$216k after Steam's cut $146k–$332k before Steam's cut
$1.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationMultiple Endings
House Party
2022
Est. copies
≈ 383k–623k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
NudityMature
The Test
2020
Est. copies
≈ 499k–810k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$273k–$734k after Steam's cut $496k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$1.99
20k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choose Your Own AdventureSimulation
A Date with Death
2023
Est. copies
≈ 371k–603k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dating SimVisual Novel
Our Life: Beginnings & Always
2020
Est. copies
≈ 342k–556k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
14k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelRomance

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