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How many copies did A Summer's End - Hong Kong 1986 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 55k–90k
$229k–$615k after Steam's cut $416k–$946k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid A Summer's End - Hong Kong 1986 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A Summer's End - Hong Kong 1986's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 283k–454k
best case 588k (missed messages.)
Games like A Summer's End - Hong Kong 1986

A typical game among these

≈ 283k–454k copies

≈ $1.3M–$2.7M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: missed messages. at ≈ 448k–728k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 800 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share LGBTQ+ (5 of 8) and Visual Novel (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + LGBTQ+.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Blush Blush
2020
Est. copies
≈ 189k–307k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
8k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentLGBTQ+
Amorous
2018
Est. copies
≈ 316k–514k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Monster Prom
2018
Est. copies
≈ 436k–708k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.9M before Steam's cut
$11.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Dating SimComedy
WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT
2023
Est. copies
≈ 216k–351k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.4M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
missed messages.
2019
Est. copies
≈ 448k–728k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayVisual Novel
BAD END THEATER
2021
Est. copies
≈ 250k–406k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$687k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$9.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Multiple EndingsVisual Novel
Lost
2019
Est. copies
≈ 221k–358k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$152k–$408k after Steam's cut $276k–$627k before Steam's cut
$2.50
8k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Dream Daddy: A Dad Dating Simulator
2017
Est. copies
≈ 216k–350k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$889k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
LGBTQ+Dating Sim

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.