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How many copies did Gensokyo Night Festival sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 138k–224k
$492k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $894k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gensokyo Night Festival and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gensokyo Night Festival's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 618k–1.6M
best case 2.1M (CONTROL Ultimate Edition)
Games like Gensokyo Night Festival

A typical game among these

≈ 618k–1.6M copies

≈ $4.9M–$19.5M after Steam's cut

from ~28k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: CONTROL Ultimate Edition at ≈ 1.6M–2.6M copies, ≈ $17.7M–$47.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 5 to 10k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (6 of 8) and Metroidvania (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Supernatural + Female Protagonist, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Kokoro's Gensokyo Journey: The Lost Masks
2022
Est. copies
≈ 273–443
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$750–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$9.99
11 reviews
Positive
ActionAction-Adventure
CONTROL Ultimate Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$17.7M–$47.7M after Steam's cut $32.2M–$73.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
ActionSupernatural
Touhou Luna Nights
2019
Est. copies
≈ 432k–701k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$17.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaDifficult
Pseudoregalia
2023
Est. copies
≈ 473k–769k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$779k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$5.99
19k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
3D PlatformerMetroidvania
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist
2025
Est. copies
≈ 468k–760k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.6M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
19k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.9M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut
$24.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
MetroidvaniaFemale Protagonist
ICEY
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.5M–$9.4M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.5M before Steam's cut
$10.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFemale Protagonist
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.2M–$35.6M after Steam's cut $24.1M–$54.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
42k reviews
Very Positive

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