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How many copies did Ember Knights sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 175k–284k
$961k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ember Knights and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ember Knights's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.5M–6.6M
best case 33.8M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)
Games like Ember Knights

A typical game among these

≈ 3.5M–6.6M copies

≈ $10.2M–$69.8M after Steam's cut

from ~97k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.8M–41.9M copies, ≈ $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 63k reviews in their first month; the range was 42k to 103k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (7 of 8) and Rogue-like (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Gunfire Reborn
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.2M–$38.1M after Steam's cut $25.7M–$58.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
104k reviews
Very Positive
Enter the Gungeon
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.4M–$41.5M after Steam's cut $28.1M–$63.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
90k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Bullet HellAction Roguelike
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Hero Siege
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.8M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.4M before Steam's cut
$7.99
48k reviews
Mixed
Action RPGPixel Graphics
Realm of the Mad God Exalt
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
48k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsMMORPG
Risk of Rain (2013)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut $9.4M–$21.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
30k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Brotato
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
119k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike

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