How much revenue did Sherlock Holmes Chapter One make?

$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Sherlock Holmes Chapter One sell?

Q: How many copies did Sherlock Holmes Chapter One sell?

113k to 184k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 113k–184k; $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$5.8M before Steam's cut; from 5k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sherlock Holmes Chapter One and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sherlock Holmes Chapter One's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–5.7M

best case 10.3M (Batman™: Arkham Knight)

Games like Sherlock Holmes Chapter One

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–5.7M copies

≈ $9.9M–$56.9M after Steam's cut

from ~51k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Batman™: Arkham Knight at ≈ 7.8M–12.7M copies, ≈ $43.0M–$115.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Detective (5 of 8) and Open World (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Superhero, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition 2012	Est. copies ≈ 5.0M–8.1M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $27.3M–$73.3M after Steam's cut $49.6M–$112.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	78k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ActionOpen World
Contraband Police 2023	Est. copies ≈ 641k–1.0M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.3M–$14.2M after Steam's cut $9.6M–$21.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	26k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldSimulation
L.A. Noire 2011	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.8M–$34.5M after Steam's cut $23.4M–$53.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	37k reviews Very Positive	DetectiveCrime
Murdered: Soul Suspect 2014	Est. copies ≈ 976k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.8M–$22.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	17k reviews Very Positive	DetectiveAdventure
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.2M 2.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	132k reviews Very Positive	RPGStory Rich
Batman™: Arkham Knight 2015	Est. copies ≈ 7.8M–12.7M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $43.0M–$115.6M after Steam's cut $78.2M–$177.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	160k reviews Very Positive	ActionOpen World
Pathologic 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 352k–572k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	12k reviews Very Positive	Story RichAtmospheric
Batman™: Arkham Origins 2013	Est. copies ≈ 4.1M–6.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.8M–$61.3M after Steam's cut $41.5M–$94.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	66k reviews Very Positive	ActionOpen World