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How many copies did Nebuchadnezzar sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 46k–74k
$251k–$674k after Steam's cut $456k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nebuchadnezzar and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nebuchadnezzar's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.7M–4.7M
best case 18.7M (Cities: Skylines)
Games like Nebuchadnezzar

A typical game among these

≈ 3.7M–4.7M copies

≈ $54.1M–$64.4M after Steam's cut

from ~92k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cities: Skylines at ≈ 14.2M–23.1M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Building (7 of 8) and Sandbox (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox, priced around $35.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Planet Zoo
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.9M–$93.8M after Steam's cut $63.4M–$144.3M before Steam's cut
$44.99
98k reviews
Very Positive
Planet Coaster
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$37.2M–$100.0M after Steam's cut $67.6M–$153.8M before Steam's cut
$44.99
72k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding
Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut
$35.00
236k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
Prison Architect
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$31.0M–$83.3M after Steam's cut $56.3M–$128.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
77k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding
Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
Very Positive
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Kenshi
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.3M–$78.9M after Steam's cut $53.3M–$121.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
117k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldSandbox

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