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How many copies did I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling 2(K) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–4k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 78 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling 2(K) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling 2(K)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 75k–450k
best case 2.3M (NBA 2K20)
Games like I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling 2(K)

A typical game among these

≈ 75k–450k copies

≈ $142k–$586k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Collectathon (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: NBA 2K20 at ≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 933 reviews in their first month; the range was 613 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Collectathon (4 of 8) and Dungeon Crawler (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Basketball + Sports.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NBA 2K19
2018
Est. copies
≈ 686k–1.1M
9.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
23k reviews
Mostly Negative
SportsBasketball
NBA 2K20
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
25x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
60k reviews
Mixed
BasketballSports
Siralim 3
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30k–49k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$124k–$333k after Steam's cut $225k–$512k before Steam's cut
$14.99
988 reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorCollectathon
Siralim Ultimate
2021
Est. copies
≈ 63k–103k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$347k–$933k after Steam's cut $631k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
CollectathonCreature Collector
Little Noah: Scion of Paradise
2022
Est. copies
≈ 56k–91k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$231k–$621k after Steam's cut $420k–$955k before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeExploration
Elin
2024
Est. copies
≈ 229k–372k
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessCharacter Customization
I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling
2017
Est. copies
≈ 57k–93k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$16k–$42k after Steam's cut $28k–$65k before Steam's cut
$0.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
LootMemes
Loot Hero DX
2015
Est. copies
≈ 74k–121k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$61k–$164k after Steam's cut $111k–$252k before Steam's cut
$2.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
Pixel GraphicsAction

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