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How many copies did I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 57k–93k
$16k–$42k after Steam's cut $28k–$65k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 52k–1.2M
best case 25.9M (Borderlands 2)
Games like I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling

A typical game among these

≈ 52k–1.2M copies

≈ $43k–$13.2M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Comedy (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Borderlands 2 at ≈ 19.8M–32.1M copies, ≈ $217.3M–$584.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 371 reviews in their first month; the range was 176 to 660.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Comedy (4 of 8) and Satire (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Loot + Shooter, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
9.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.7M–$71.7M after Steam's cut $48.5M–$110.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
43k reviews
Mostly Positive
Looter ShooterCo-op
DLC Quest
2013
Est. copies
≈ 394k–640k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$324k–$870k after Steam's cut $589k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$2.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerIndie
Loot Box Quest
2017
Est. copies
≈ 17k–27k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$5k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$19k before Steam's cut
$0.99
484 reviews
Very Positive
CasualClicker
WHAT THE GOLF?
2020
Est. copies
≈ 119k–194k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$655k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
MemesComedy
Borderlands 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 19.8M–32.1M
68x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$217.3M–$584.2M after Steam's cut $395.1M–$898.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
313k reviews
Very Positive
LootShooter
I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling 2(K)
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$1.99
78 reviews
Mixed
CollectathonLoot
Sir Whoopass™: Immortal Death
2022
Est. copies
≈ 48k–78k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$223k–$599k after Steam's cut $405k–$922k before Steam's cut
$16.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
RPGAction RPG
Kandidatos
2020
Est. copies
≈ 109k–177k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$30k–$80k after Steam's cut $54k–$123k before Steam's cut
$0.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
FightingPolitical

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